From: Irene Randall irandall52@yahoo.co.uk
Date: Tue, Jun 14, 2011 at 01:05
Subject: Re: akratics anonymous and the what-the-hell effect
Hi - Having re read everyones comments I see that I hadnt really
understood the arguments the first time I commented. For me it has to
be simple (thats why I like the raw data of my bathroom scale (s) )
with no wriggle room. I weigh, I write it down in my book, I log it on
my graph. It works best if there is a BIG reward - an all in one hit
not dribs and drabs - which will evaporate if I get to the set date
and am not under my goal weight. After that its up to me if I eat
reasonably or gorge and then run miles … graph and scale dont care,
dont lie. Yeah - go ahead Irene and have a What The Hell but you know
that scale and graph will reflect it and you will be in big trouble
getting back on the YBR.
I sympathise with Jills thoughts (and congrats BTW on your -18lbs) but
I need to be much much harsher on myself to get the results I crave.
Apple Shop in Covent Garden here I come (woo hoo - today!)
Irene Randall
From: Julian Schvartzman julian.schvartzman@gmail.com
To: Daniel Reeves dreeves@umich.edu
Cc: akratics@beeminder.com
Sent: Tuesday, 14 June 2011, 3:52
Subject: Re: akratics anonymous and the what-the-hell effect
Dan,
This is in response to your previous message…
I get your points about partial refunds. I think that one of the main
problems of this idea is the added complexity: in general, simpler
rules seem better. However, human motivation (or lack thereof) doesn’t
sound like a simple issue, and seems more complex than the anecdotal
dilemma of offering a configurable auction or “just an auction”.
Personally, I wouldn’t mind going off the YBR a few times, as long as
I reached my goal anyway, within a reasonable tolerance. Perhaps this
is similar to having had some wine while in Spain. Of course, you can
say that the goal should have been “at most two drinks in any two
month period” or similar. I am just not convinced that strict rules
with a single large penalty alone create sufficient motivation for a
large group of people that will inevitably tend to go what-the-hell.
Note that the simpler scheme of increasing penalties over time is, in
a way, also giving you “second chances” in advance. You just pay the
smaller penalties, get another chance, and another… until you have
no more slack and your next penalty is sufficiently high. Getting
penalties refunded back to you is similar in this sense: you know in
advance that you’ll have a second chance (by possibly earning some of
your money back) and speculate on that, but these refund opportunities
can easily be defined as increasingly more difficult to attain (plus
you still have the threat of the next higher penalty). The increasing
penalty scheme serves to discover the right motivating penalty amount;
the refund mechanism is making the discovery process less expensive
(plus the added benefit of creating an acquisitional goal). Once the
refund process becomes sufficiently difficult, it’s like having no
refund at all.
In any case, complexity alone might be sufficient to reject this
refund approach. What I am trying to say is that, complexity aside, a
properly defined refund mechanism doesn’t seem to have worse
consequences than a scheme using increasing penalties and no refunds.
I look fwd to reading about your new ideas…
Julian
On Mon, Jun 13, 2011 at 10:37 PM, Daniel Reeves dreeves@umich.edu wrote:
Thanks, Jill! Your last sentence is interesting… sounds like $621
is still below your Motivation Point. Or could potentially be, if
you’re even entertaining that “$621 to lose 18 pounds is a good deal”
rationalization. But think of it this way: you can save yourself $621
just by not eating much for one week! So even if all-in-all it would
still be a good deal if you lost, you should feel pretty dumb if you
do.
I’m still thinking about the ideas for turning the contract penalty
around to not feel like a punishment. There are some good ideas here
but I’m still personally not that into it. I mean, fine, it’s a
punishment; so what? As an akratic you’re failing to do that which you
obviously, unambiguously need to be doing, so why screw around? Let’s
just go to the closest possible approximation of putting a gun to your
head. In my way of thinking, every variation that makes it less
like having a gun to your head just increases the chances that you’ll
lose.
Finally, I noticed a similarity in Jill’s and Alex’s stories that
reminded me of discussions with David Reiley and Dan Goldstein: In
Alex’s case he was on vacation in Spain and it made sense to have an
exception to his no alcohol contract. In Jill’s case, a temporary
reprieve so she can enjoy the wedding and graduation party might make
sense. Alex got the reprieve but at the expense of being able to take
the contract seriously anymore. Jill explained how the possibility of
reprieves just makes the overall goal harder. Still, wouldn’t it be
nice if there was a way to have the best of both world’s? Could you
put that gun pointed at your head in the hands of someone you trust to
make the right judgment calls?
We’re working on an idea that’s not quite that holy grail but getting
closer. We’ll describe it here soon.
On Mon, Jun 13, 2011 at 20:19, Jill Renaud veganjill@gmail.com wrote:
I agree with Danny on many of these points. I have been kibotzing (or
should I say beeminding) for over three years now
(beeminder) with some degree of success. I’ve been
here through the three strikes rule – which overall makes the goal much
tougher – because you don’t take day to day things seriously enough. I’ve
also been here through the various grace periods and extra silly rules. I
think the barebones model (all or none) is best in terms of pushing you to
meet your goal.
My current weight loss road (beeminder) ends in a
week and I am dangerously close to losing my bet. That said, I think that I
am very motivated to win my bet because the punishment is appropriately
severe ($621, which I need pretty badly to buy a new wardrobe since none of
my clothes fit me right now). If I had already won back 95% of my money,
I’d be pretty inclined to say “good enough” and not meet my overall goal. I
have a graduation party and a wedding to attend this weekend – were it not
for my road ending on Tuesday, I’d probably eat with reckless abandon and be
very disappointed with myself come Monday morning. Having basica.lly my
entire bet ride on this weekend will ensure that I behave (and hopefully
meet my overall goal).
That said, even if I don’t meet my overall goal, $621 to lose 18lbs is a
good deal in my book.
-Jill
On Sun, Jun 12, 2011 at 7:33 PM, Daniel Reeves dreeves@umich.edu wrote:
It would be cool to have some kind of vivid daily feedback like “Today
you gained x$ :-)” or “Today you lost y$ :-(”
My reaction to these ideas for changing the psychology is that it’s
not appealing to me personally, though I realize I may be in the
minority and that we want to experiment with this stuff (and thanks
again for the great ideas!).
But let me make one counterargument against things like earning back
some of your forfeited money: it really muddies the consequences. How
bad is it to go off this road, exactly? If it’s a definite dollar
amount then the answer is simple. If it’s an amount some of which I
can earn back, then it’s complicated, which is not what we want. It’s
kind of like a previous debate we’ve had about grace periods and
similar things to make YBR contracts less harsh. Here was my
conclusion: (Short version: 3-strikes policies and grace periods and
such seem so fair and reasonable but they backfire. Better to stick
with the dirt simple “step off this road and you lose”.)
We need to minimize the number of rules and caveats to think about.
Any rules and caveats that make staying on the road harder are bad for
obvious reasons. But even the ones that try to make it easier you have
to think about too. That’s because you’re going to end up pushing the
limits and to understand the precise limits you have to understand
every rule and caveat. The idea is to have as little ambiguity as
possible about what will make you lose. Consider grace periods,
3-strikes policies, and complicated and generous exemption criteria.
Those, ironically, don’t reduce your chances of failing on your
contract! How not? Because they don’t really make the overall goal any
easier; they mostly just add some fuzziness about how far you can push
things before you really lose. Which just means you push a little
farther than you would otherwise and just end up increasing your
chances of losing. Better to push it / procrastinate up to a bright,
unambiguous line than to push it / procrastinate up to a line whose
exact location is shrouded.
The lesson I’ve learned: make the goal itself easier, don’t try to
make it easier with various leniencies. If there’s any doubt, do a
trial period to see what a road is like before you fully commit to it.
–
http://dreev.es – search://“Daniel Reeves”
Follow the Yellow Brick Road – http://beeminder.com
–
http://dreev.es – search://“Daniel Reeves”
Follow the Yellow Brick Road – http://beeminder.com
–
http://dreev.es – search://“Daniel Reeves”
Follow the Yellow Brick Road – http://beeminder.com