Beeminder Forum

Eugenio's bad first attempts at financial research

I’ll try to do some valuation and stock research in here to hold myself accountable to the analysis I do, and so I can learn in the future by what I thought in the past and how and why it was wrong.

The fact that the beeminder’s forum always shows you previous revisions for every post makes this even better; it’s pretty much going to be a consistent “account” of my research, even if I mess up in my organization of notes and stuff.

None of this is investment advice. I lose money. You will lose money just by reading my posts.

Fellow* finance nerds, feel free to completely challenge me and roast me on my analysis! That’s an extremely quick way for me to grow.

*I’d like to say fellow, but right now I’m at best an aspiring finance nerd.

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It seems we are witnessing something pretty unique! VIX at literal ATHs since recorded data, markets not working anywhere, indices being seemingly +/- 10% every day…

For the velocity in the market crash, I thought I’d be able to just wave my hands and point to short gamma and leveraged ETFs or something, but this appears to be way more than I can understand!

Fortunately my long/short portfolio is doing fairly well even in this mess. (Actually, my performance since opening my “serious” long/short portfolio ~1 month ago is so good and statistically unlikely that I think I spent all my luck for my next 10 years of investing! I haven’t even backtested a single overfitted algorithm to this kind of sharpe and sortino yet)

And of course, always fun to read people’s calls about where the stonk market is going (especially when they’re really, really wrong):