Good day,
I looked at the Manifold Markets integration into Beeminder (beeminding volume of bets / etcetera on Manifold) and was thinking about the potential utility of the reverse - pushing data from Beeminder to Manifold.
Consider the following example. If I want to make a market on Manifold Markets labeled the following,
“Will I track six hours of sleep an average of 5/7 days over the course of the next 52 weeks? (yes/no)”
Description
I will track whether I track six hours of sleep an average of 5/7 days over the course of the next 52 weeks. I will resolve this after either 52 weeks of success, or resolve early should I derail at any point before then. If I sleep for 7 days in a week, it will make it so that I have a touch of buffer for a less busy week.
Please see my progress in the below public link, and see a record of my sleep tracked over the last seven days."
While it would be WILDLY easier to do this manually (as I intend to) I’m curious about whether having a system to autoresolve should you derail, or meet some other criterion such as success, would be useful to have.
I’ve been liking Manifold Markets as a commitment device because it’s both public, and helps calibrate realistic expectations of success. I’m planning to combine the two very soon and see what happens! 