FiveThirtyEight has a great overview about tracking their historical prediction accuracy over time.
Does anyone know of a good way to easily track this type of thing personally?
For example, I just told a co-worker that I was 90% confident about [work trivia]. It turned out (an entire two minutes later) that I was quite wrong about [work trivia]. I now need to be right about the next 9 things that I have 90% confidence about!
Estimating project time requirements and then tracking time spent has been great for me, as it turns out I tend to estimate about 50% too high.
It would be great to work out if I’m habitually over-confident or over-pessimistic with my predictions, so I can adjust to suit.