Prologue: I hope this clearly conveys what I intended it to. I couldn’t find anything quite like it when I searched (related post is here, but I want to apply a bound on it where he wants to use it as a parameter).
Sometimes when beeminding a new goal, I’ll make really good initial progress, e.g., suppose I have a weight loss goal at a modest -0.1 lbs/day, and the same wellspring of motivation that gets me beeminding in the first place independently causes me to eat less and workout more. When this happens I start out making progress much more rapidly than I’d intended to, say on average -0.3 lbs/day for a week. Now at the end of the week, I’m ahead of my goal by over a pound and (here’s where I go wrong) I invariably think I can sustain something like this pace, so I crank up my goal to -0.25 lbs/day. I get ambitious and more than double my initial pace. It looks like this:
But in the real world, motivation starts to wear thin, maybe the baby is teething and I lose some sleep, skip a workout, eat a little extra, and my true pace starts to level off. Now my plot looks something like this:
By day 12 maybe I wise up and dial it back a bit, but by then it’s too late. With derailure looming, I give up and hit the archive button and resolve to do better next time (maybe after a month’s grace period).
If I had to guess, I’d say this is probably well-trod ground and someone has come up with a good approach to this, probably setting a meta goal, but I’d like to know how the community has dealt with this problem in the past.