In the Commits.to spec I propose a 6% or 36% per year discount rate: https://github.com/commitsto/commits.to/wiki#for-later-future-discounting

But then @byorgey said the following and everyone (who I asked in Slack) seemed to think he’s right:

I feel like a year is a

reallylong time in commitment-land. That is, how reliable I was on my commitments a year ago has very little to do with how reliable I am now. In a year my life situation could have totally changed, I could have gotten a lot better (or a lot worse!) at picking good deadlines, etc. So to me a “reasonable-seeming” discount rate might be more like 90% a year (compounded continuously of course).

To translate from one brand of nerdery to another, in case that’s helpful, a discount rate is like a half-life. Your overall reliability is a weighted average of your promises’ scores, and a promise loses half its weight every so many years. A 6% discount rate means the half-life is 12 years. For 90% the half-life is 9 months. The formula is log(2)/r.)

So, straw poll, what do you think Commits.to’s discount rate should be? (It’s approval voting, so check all the ones that seem reasonable to you

- 0% (half-life infinity – all promises weighted equally)
- 6% (half-life ~12 years)
- 36% (half-life ~2 years)
- 50% (half-life 1.4 years)
- 69% (half-life 1 year)
- 90% (half-life ~9 months)
- 100% (half-life ~8 months)
- 139% (half-life 6 months)
- 832% (half-life 1 month)
- 3604% (half-life 1 week)

0 voters