I just submitted this as a possible talk:
Tracking my personal reliability: I’ve made it a strict personal rule that every time I utter a statement starting with “I will” to someone, no matter how casually, I log the commitment, with a due date, and keep track of when I follow through. Using a highly over-engineered formula, I turn all that data into a single reliability metric. It’s roughly measuring the probability that any given “I will” statement I make will turn out to be true. But it also accounts for it being kinda true – when I do follow through but not by the deadline I specified.